JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Chairman of the Institute for Economy and Society University of Indonesia (LPEM-UI) M Chatib Basri Indonesia predicts inflation in 2010 will be at the level of 6-7 per cent driven by government plans to raise electricity basic tariff (TDL) and the upcoming July 2010 increase in world commodity prices, especially crude oil prices.
"The increase in TDL inflation could reach 6 percent but with a tendency to increase in world commodity inflation could rise by 7 percent. But I think, hopefully it does not happen," said Chatib after the seminar "The 10th Annual Citi Indonesia Economic and Political Outlook" at the Ritz Carlton Pacific Place, Jakarta, Thursday (18/3/2010).
According to world commodity prices, especially crude oil prices, which could affect oil prices, very difficult for Bank Indonesia to manage inflation expectations in the range of 5.5 percent according to government targets.
"Unless BI (Bank Indonesia) to manage inflation expectations well.'s Why inflation management is very important. Inflation in the range of 6-7 per cent do not worry excessively because inflation had previously been in the range of 8-9 percent," he said.
The inflation rate is fairly low last year (2.78 percent), according to Chatib, as influenced by the falling fuel prices and the administered price is declining. "If now to get a 5.5 percent inflation rate just hard," he explained.
It said this year the inflation rate can stay awake for supported strengthening the rupiah against the U.S. dollar. Chatib predict the average exchange rate would strengthen USD 9500 per U.S. dollar compared to last year at an average level of Rp 10,200 per U.S. dollar.
Besides the possibility of Bank Indonesia will maintain its benchmark interest rate or BI rate at the level of 6,5-7 percent until the end of the year.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar